Due to the enormous quality of the respective top teams, the Champions League is not only an absolutely top-class affair to watch, but also from a sports betting perspective, the knockout phase of the premier class enjoys extremely great popularity. After all, absolute pop games between teams on equal terms are inevitable here. And this means, taken a step further, that the odds for the three markets alone in the classic 3-way system (win, draw and loss) are all in the high range. It is not uncommon to find odds in the higher two-player range (e.g. 2.60 – 3.30 – 2.70) for all three options in particularly close games between equal teams, so that the right player is always rewarded particularly strongly. And in order to have the right smell in UEFA Champions League knockout matches, it is also essential to know the specifics that come with betting on such types of matches. After all, it is only after the second leg that the score is settled, while away goals in the event of a tie are known to count double. These tips and tricks you can use for your next visit at bet Zambia.
Champions League knockout statistics: Is it really a disadvantage to play at home first?
First of all, it should be noted that it is considered a kind of „privilege“ to be allowed to play away first. It is not for nothing that the group winner is not given the choice of whether he wants to play at home or far away, but the system is based on the basic assumption that it is desirable to play for the opponent first and then have his own fans behind him in the often decisive return match.
Now, however, comes a huge twist on the matter, which you as a tipper absolutely have to know. Thus, a statistical analysis of all matches in the Champions League knockout phase, which has been held in this and similar form since the introduction of the premier class for the 1992/93 season, has revealed the exact opposite. The analysis shows that it is by no means an advantage to play away first, but that the distribution of teams reaching the next round is roughly the same. In 50% of all cases, both the team that competed first at home and the teams that initially played away prevail.
Now, however, comes a crucial factor that we absolutely must incorporate into these highly interesting figures. Namely the Champions League round of 16. As a reminder: Here, without exception, the runner-up in the group always plays against a group winner first at home. And that also means that sometimes less successful teams, which were more likely to have made it to the knockout round as runners-up, can face top-class teams such as FC Barcelona, Real Madrid, FC Bayern Munich, Juventus Turin, Paris Saint-Germain or even Manchester City – and thus teams that win their preliminary round groups with great reliability. It is not uncommon for there to be a number of matches in the Champions League round of 16 in which there is not yet much excitement.
In the round of 16 of 2017/18, for example, this was the pairing between Porto and Liverpool or Basel and Manchester City. In the previous season, matches such as Leverkusen against Atlético Madrid or Benfica Lisbon against Borussia Dortmund. And again the year before, matches like Kyiv against Manchester City, Eindhoven against Atlético Madrid and Gent against Wolfsburg. In the current 2018/19 season, teams like Lyon, Schalke and Ajax are unlikely to have too much hope against their opponents Barcelona, Real Madrid and Manchester City.
Long story short: In the Champions League round of 16, there are always such unequal pairings. And in these, with an assumed probability of at least 75% to a high of maybe 90%, the team that was first in its group in the preliminary round and therefore has to compete away from home first always prevails. The fact that in the overall statistics the distribution of home and away teams from the first leg that advance to the next round is approximately 50% each can only allow one conclusion:
It is NOT an advantage to be allowed to compete away first. Rather, the reverse is true: the team that has home advantage in the first leg even has a slight statistical advantage.
